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February 2026 delivered a split result for the Coastal Bay of Plenty. Domestic visitation softened across most measures, with the region's largest domestic source markets pulling back and commercial accommodation bearing the brunt of the decline. International visitors told a different story, spending more, staying longer, and increasingly choosing coastal and rural destinations over the city centre.

February 2026 at Glance

Waikato visitor days fell: ▼21% YoY for the month but the quarterly view grew ▲6% YoY,
suggesting timing shifts rather than structural decline.

Tauranga City bore the brunt of the accommodation softening: (▼13% YoY guest nights) while Western Bay of Plenty District held up (▼3% YoY).

Tourism earnings rose: ▲5% YoY (second highest on the North Island) despite flat filled jobs suggesting a shift toward higher value employment.

FEBRUARY 2026 COMMENTARY

Waitangi weekend brings in domestic visitor counts however overall vistation contracted
The February data points to some challenges in overall visitation. Total visitor days fell -6% YoY while visitor nights and unique visitor counts softened at a similar rate (-5% YoY), suggesting the average time spent in region was broadly unchanged. The Waitangi long weekend delivered the month's strongest domestic visitor counts, roughly similar to last year, indicating the soft headline reflects weaker mid-month weeks. Guest nights contracted further (-10% YoY), with guest arrivals falling (-11% YoY) while average length of stay held steady, pointing to fewer visitors choosing commercial accommodation rather than shorter stays. Total visitor spending slightly dipped (-3% YoY), in line with the gernal drop in visitation.

International visitor spending and nights surge while domestic visitor days and card spending decline
Domestic and international segments told opposite stories this month. Domestic visitor days contracted -10% YoY and domestic card spending fell slightly softer (-6% YoY), suggesting visitors from the wider region spent less time but slightly more money on average. International visitor days grew +4% YoY and international visitor nights outpaced that (+6% YoY), implying international visitors stayed slightly longer in the region. International spending increased by+9% YoY, pointing to both more visitors and a slightly higher yield per visitor. The domestic weakness in vistation appears structural rather than seasonal: the rolling 12 month domestic visitor day trend sits at -3% YoY while international is running at +9% YoY.

International visitor days lift while domestic visitor days contract
Domestic visitor days contracted -10% YoY, roughly in line with Northland (-10% YoY) and notably softer than Auckland (+1% YoY) and Taupō (-1% YoY). International visitor days grew +4% YoY, a positive result but the weakest international growth among mid-sized North Island RTOs; Taupō (+20% YoY), Rotorua (+16% YoY), and Coromandel (+15% YoY) all posted stronger gains. The Waitangi long weekend was the busiest period of the month for domestic visitors, with the Saturday after Waitangi Day the month's peak.

The domestic story was one of top tier contraction while the international market mix reshuffled
The domestic story was one of top tier contraction and medium tier resilience. Two of the larger source markets (Waikato at 29% share and Bay of Plenty at 16% share) both contracted strongly at -21% YoY and -17% YoY, respectvely. Meanwhile two of the medium tier markets (Wellington at 8% share and Manawatū-Whanganui at 7% share) exhibited moderate growth at +7% YoY and +6% YoY, respctively. Critically, Waikato's -21% YoY monthly result looks worse than it is: the quarter ending view shows +6% YoY growth, pointing to a timing shift rather than a structural retreat from the region. The Bay of Plenty Region's own visitors also showed a similar pattern (-17% YoY monthly, +8% YoY quarterly). Internationally, the market mix reshuffled. Europe retained the leading share (28%) but visitor days dipped -8% YoY for the month while the quarterly view expanded +12% YoY, another timing shift. Australia (+22% YoY) drove most of the growth and was consistent across all timeframes. Rest of Asia climbed two rank positions to third (+15% YoY), displacing USA & Canada which fell two places (-10% YoY).

Both districts declined similarly overall, but the Western Bay of Plenty saw stronger results in the international segment
Both districts declined at similar rates for total and domestic visitor days, but Western Bay of Plenty District outperformed on international growth. Tauranga City fell -6% YoY total, with domestic visitor days down -9% YoY and international up +3% YoY. Western Bay of Plenty District fell -6% YoY total with domestic down -10% YoY but international growing +7% YoY. The stronger international result in the district suggests more of the region's international visitor growth is flowing to coastal and rural attractions rather than the city centre.

International visitor retail spend surges as domestic card transactions and hospitality services soften
Total visitor card spend dipped slightly (-3% YoY) driven by a decline in the domestic segment (-6% YoY), which was softneed by considerable card spend growth in the international segment (+9% YoY). Card spend on retail trade products grew considerably up (+18% YoY) among internationals and up (+2% YoY) among domesitc vistors. Meanwhile card spend on ammocdation and food and beverage services contracted.

Mixed domestic card spend results as top markets decline while others grow moderately
The domestic card spend contraction was driven by declines in card spend from the top tier markets Waikato at 35% share (-7% YoY) and Auckland at 25% share (-4% YoY). By contratst, domestic visitor spending from the Bay of Plenty market at 12% share grew moderately (+5% YoY).

International card spending surges driven by the USA market
International card spending grew considerably (+9% YoY) mostly driven by growth in the USA market (+8% YoY) now making up one third of international card spending. The other top markets United Kingdom (-7% YoY) and Australia (-11% YoY) contracted, each making up a 12% share of international card spending. The remaining uplift in interantional spending was carried by Asian markets with Chinese New Year being more prominent in February this year.

Western Bay of Plenty increasingly popular with internationals
At the district level the gap between domestic spend decline and international spend growth furhter widened in the Western Bay of Plenty with domestic card spend down (-9% YoY) and international card spend up (+12% YoY). While international F&B spend remained stable in Tauranga City it grew singificantly in the Western Bay of Plenty (+13% YoY).

Tauranga City pulls Bay of Plenty residents domestic visitor spending
Domestic card spend by Bay of Plenty residents increased by +7% YoY in Tauranga City, while it declined by -8% YoY in the Western Bay of Plenty, potentially linked to retail spending who took the least hit in domestic card spending. Internationally, the strong growth by the USA market was singificantly higher in the Western Bay of Plenty (+18% YoY) than Tauranga City (+8% YoY).

Accommodation demand softens as declining guest nights and arrivals impact occupancy
The accommodation sector underperformed both the national average and most North Island peers, ranking 13th of 15 for guest nights. Total guest nights fell -10% YoY, driven by fewer arrivals (-11% YoY) rather than shorter stays; average length of stay held at 2.6 nights (+1% YoY). Occupancy sat at 55%, down -2%pt. YoY, as the softening in demand was met by a supply side contraction: available capacity fell -8% YoY, meaning the region had fewer rooms to fill. Domestic and international guest nights declined at similar rates (-10% YoY and -11% YoY respectively).

Domestic visitors are increasingly choosing the district over the city
Tauranga City absorbed most of the pain while Western Bay of Plenty District held up considerably better. Tauranga's guest nights fell -13% YoY, driven by a sharp domestic retreat (-16% YoY) with international softening more modestly (-6% YoY); occupancy sat at 65% (-2%pt. YoY). Western Bay of Plenty District's guest nights dipped only -3% YoY as domestic guest nights grew +3% YoY, offsetting a contraction in international guest nights (-32% YoY, likely reflecting the district's smaller international base). Occupancy in Western Bay sat at 39% (-1%pt. YoY). The divergence suggests domestic visitors are increasingly choosing the district's holiday parks and coastal properties over the city's commercial stock.

Strong earnings growth and expanding activity services lead a shift toward higher value roles
Tourism earnings grew strongly despite flat headcount, suggesting the workforce is shifting toward higher value roles. Filled jobs held flat (0% YoY) while earnings rose +5% YoY, placing the Coastal Bay of Plenty second on the North Island for earnings growth. Food and Beverage Services (51% of filled jobs) shed positions (-2% YoY) but lifted earnings (+6% YoY), consistent with fewer but better paid roles. Recreation Services expanded both jobs (+3% YoY) and earnings (+5% YoY), and Activity Services posted the strongest jobs growth (+10% YoY). Travel and Tour Services cut jobs (-7% YoY) but grew earnings (+5% YoY), another instance of workforce thinning paired with earnings gains.

City earnings and filled jobs surge while district workforce and job numbers contract
Tauranga City drove the region's earnings result while Western Bay of Plenty District contracted. Tauranga's filled jobs grew +2% YoY and earnings rose +7% YoY, consistent with the city's concentration of Food and Beverage and Recreation roles absorbing the region's experiential growth. Western Bay of Plenty District's filled jobs fell -7% YoY with earnings flat (↔ 0% YoY), a sharper workforce contraction than the district's relatively mild accommodation and visitor day declines would suggest. This may reflect seasonal workforce exits from holiday and activity operators in the district following the peak summer period.